The Video Assistant Referee was introduced to the Premier League in the 2019-20 season. It has changed how goals are scored, when they are scored, and how often the marginal events that produce them are reviewed. The over/under markets have integrated some of this, but the second-order effects — particularly on added-time scoring — remain inconsistently priced.
The First-Order Impact: Penalties
Penalties per match have increased modestly since VAR’s introduction. Pre-VAR (2014-2019), the Premier League averaged 0.24 penalties per match. Post-VAR (2019-present), the average is 0.31. That is roughly one additional penalty per 14 matches. Penalty conversion rate is around 78%, so the extra penalties contribute approximately 0.05 goals per match on average.
This effect is small but persistent. The over 2.5 goals line on matches involving sides that draw penalties at above-average rates (often top-six attacking sides at home) has shifted slightly upward. Bookmaker pricing has adjusted in aggregate, but match-by-match recreational pricing sometimes lags.
The Second-Order Impact: Added Time
VAR adds significant time to Premier League matches. Average added time in the second half has risen from 4.2 minutes pre-VAR to 6.8 minutes post-VAR, with peaks above 12 minutes in matches with multiple reviews. This extra time produces more late goals.
| Goal timing | Pre-VAR rate | Post-VAR rate |
|---|---|---|
| Goals in 86-90 minutes | 11.2% of goals | 10.8% |
| Goals in added time (90+ min) | 4.1% | 7.3% |
| Total goals last 10 minutes + AT | 15.3% | 18.1% |
The added-time goal rate has nearly doubled. This affects two specific markets: second-half over goals (slight upward pressure) and last-team-to-score (added time goals from trailing sides are now more frequent).
The Marginal Offside Effect
VAR review of marginal offsides has produced a counterintuitive effect on goal counts. Pre-VAR, goals where a forward was a few centimetres offside were sometimes scored and sometimes ruled out by linesmen using human judgment, which created a roughly 50/50 split. Post-VAR, these goals are systematically ruled out. The net effect on total goals is a reduction of approximately 0.04 goals per match.
This partially offsets the penalty-driven increase. The net impact on goals per match is roughly +0.01-0.02 — statistically detectable in large samples but smaller than most bettors assume.
How to Use This
The market mispricing opportunity is in second-half and added-time-specific markets, not in overall 2.5 totals. Look for:
- Over 1.5 second-half goals in matches where one side trails at half-time
- Over 0.5 added-time goals (when this market is offered)
- Late goalscorer markets, particularly on the trailing side’s striker
Confirm the implied probability of each line using the odds calculator. To check whether the margin on niche markets like second-half goals is competitive, use the margin calculator.