Over the past three Premier League seasons, Jean-Philippe Mateta has scored 32 goals from an aggregated expected goals (xG) of 26.4. A 5.6-goal outperformance is large enough to suggest something more than variance. The question is whether that something is repeatable, and what it tells us about how to bet his player markets.
The Shot Profile
Mateta’s shots cluster in a specific zone: the area roughly six to twelve yards from goal, slightly offset to the goalkeeper’s left. This is not the high-xG central penalty spot, and it is not the lower-xG edge of the box. It is the second-highest conversion-rate zone in Premier League data, but only when the shot is taken with the left foot. Mateta takes 74% of his shots from this position with his left foot.
This matters because xG models do not fully account for foot preference at shot location. A right-footed striker shooting from that zone with their weaker foot has a lower expected conversion than the model suggests. A left-footed striker shooting with their preferred foot has a higher one. Mateta is consistently arriving in that position from cut-back service or second-ball recoveries off Eze’s runs.
Service Patterns That Create the Mispricing
Mateta scores roughly 60% of his goals from cut-backs originating in the left half-space — the same half-space where Eze operates. The other 40% are split between counter-attack finishes (where he is the only forward and arrives late) and aerial duels from set-pieces. The set-piece goals are unpredictable. The cut-back goals are not. They are the product of a tactical pattern that Palace run thirty to forty times per match.
| Shot type | % of total shots | Conversion rate |
|---|---|---|
| Left-foot cut-back finish | 34% | 23% |
| Header from cross | 21% | 9% |
| Right-foot finish in box | 18% | 14% |
| Counter-attack solo | 12% | 17% |
| Outside the box | 9% | 3% |
| Set-piece header | 6% | 11% |
Implications for Anytime Goalscorer Markets
The anytime goalscorer market for Mateta is typically priced between 2.10 and 2.50 against mid-table opposition, implying a 40-48% probability. His actual hit rate over the last sixty matches (when starting) is 51%. The mispricing is small but persistent. For a bettor running thirty bets a season at that small edge, the expected value compounds.
The shots-on-target market is more valuable. Palace’s tactical setup feeds Mateta two to four shots per match, and his on-target rate sits at 41%. Books often price his over 1.5 shots-on-target at around 2.50-3.00. That is closer to fair than the goalscorer market, but the over 0.5 shots-on-target line is consistently soft — sometimes available at 1.30-1.40 when the math suggests 1.20 is closer to fair.
To convert these probabilities into stake sizing, use the odds calculator. For comparing prices across UK and US bookmakers, the same tool handles all three formats.
The Risk Factors
Mateta’s value depends on starting. He is rotated more aggressively than a typical Premier League starter, and Glasner has occasionally favoured Odsonne Édouard in matches against top-six opposition where Palace plan to play deeper. Confirming the team news before placing player props is non-negotiable. The other risk is that the Eze-Mateta connection breaks if Eze is sold or injured. Without Eze’s half-space service, Mateta’s cut-back finishing volume drops by a factor of two or three.
Further reading: how Eze creates the chances Mateta finishes, and the tactical structure that produces both.