Crystal Palace have played 240 Premier League matches against Big Six opposition over the past decade. The conventional wisdom is that Palace lose most of them. The conventional wisdom is correct in aggregate — Palace win roughly 18% of these matches — but it disguises a more interesting pattern beneath the surface.
The Home Pattern
At Selhurst Park against Big Six sides, Palace win 28% of matches, draw 24%, and lose 48%. The implied probability of a Palace home win against an average Big Six side is around 22% based on the bookmaker market. The actual rate is 28%. That six-point gap is structural and persistent over the ten-year window.
The away pattern is the opposite. Palace win only 8% of matches at Big Six grounds. The market typically prices them at 12-15%. There is a small but consistent negative edge on the Palace away win line against top-six opposition.
BTTS and Both Teams to Score
| Fixture type | BTTS rate | Typical odds (Yes) | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palace home vs top six | 61% | 1.80 | +5.6% |
| Palace away vs top six | 54% | 1.72 | -3.8% |
| Palace home vs bottom half | 49% | 1.90 | -3.4% |
| Palace away vs bottom half | 44% | 1.85 | -9.9% |
The BTTS market on Palace home matches against top six opposition is the strongest single edge in the data set. Palace tend to concede in these matches but they also tend to score — the high press generates opportunities even against quality opposition, and the opponent almost always scores. The BTTS rate of 61% sits well above the implied probability of typical bookmaker pricing.
Match Result Specifics
Palace’s record against Manchester City over the past decade is unusually poor (W2 D5 L13). Against Arsenal it is moderately bad (W4 D6 L10). Against Liverpool it is genuinely competitive at home (W3 D2 L5 in ten matches at Selhurst). Against Manchester United it has been historically split (W7 D4 L9), with Palace producing several high-profile wins. Tottenham has been the most predictable match-up — Palace have lost most away fixtures and produced draws at home.
The pattern this exposes: match result markets price Palace as roughly equally bad against all top-six sides. They are not. Specific match-ups (Manchester United away, Liverpool at home) historically over-deliver and offer value. Specific match-ups (Manchester City home or away) historically under-deliver. The market does not differentiate.
Practical Application
The two markets to focus on for value:
- Palace home draw vs Big Six (priced too high regularly, hits 24% vs implied 18%)
- BTTS yes on Palace home vs Big Six (priced too high, hits 61% vs implied 55%)
To calculate exact expected value on these positions, see the odds calculator and use the Kelly tab with your estimated probability. For the deeper structure of how to use closing-line value to verify your edge, see our piece on CLV.