The use of “Expected Goals” or “xG” is still incredibly new in footballing circles but after years of searching for a way of measuring the quality of a team’s performances from week to week, it’s certainly got a fair few people interested.
This gives me hope.
I know it's very "hipster" to put your faith in xG but I do think our performances have been better than the table shows. https://t.co/Ke1kuDfcwZ
— HLTCO (@HLTCO) November 13, 2017
The basic premise of the analysis centres around the quality of the chances a team produces rather than the number of goals scored. As we all know, a side can be blessed with real quality in midfield and wide areas but fall down hugely when it comes to having someone to put the ball in the back of the net; in theory the analysis of “Expected Goals” does away with moments of wastefulness in the final third and instead produces a figure based upon the goals a team should have scored.
With Palace currently sitting rock bottom of the Premier League table with just four points from their opening 11 games things are looking rather bleak but a quick glance at the table based upon the measure of “Expected Goals” sees us jump all the way up to to 11th above the likes of Burnley, Huddersfield and Everton with 13 points.
You need only look back to our dominant display at Turf Moor under Frank de Boer, our late 2-2 draw with West Ham and our undeserved 1-0 defeat to Tottenham last time out to think of games in which we could easily have picked up maximum points if the cards had fallen a little more favourably, giving me and I’m sure many more supporters hope of us turning things round between now and May under the guidance of Roy Hodgson.
I am well aware that plenty see “Expected Goals” as nothing more as a fad created by hipsters who are desperate to tinker with the beautiful game but in our current predicament, I’ll cling onto anything I can that points towards our possible salvation.